Barack Obama’s message to “the brothers” late last week was blunt.
“I’m here to speak some truths, if you don’t mind,” the former president told a group of black voters.
“My understanding based on reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities is that we have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all quarters as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.”
US election latest: Harris makes admission about election race
It was a direct message to focus minds. It reflected increasing angst within the Democratic Party about the “black vote”.
It also hinted at an arrogance – to assume people would vote for Kamala Harris just because she is black.
Mr Obama’s anxiety was an echo of new polling which suggests Ms Harris is drawing the black male vote by a much smaller margin than he did back in 2012. In fact, every election since Mr Obama’s first win has seen a shrinking black Democratic vote.
Drill down on the latest data, and it’s alarming reading for the Harris campaign.
It is clear black men, particularly young men, are increasingly turning to Donald Trump.
It’s by no means a majority of the demographic – most still vote Democrat – but in an election where the margins are so tight, even a moderate shift in voter behaviour in key swing states could make all the difference.
So what’s the draw to Mr Trump? Why is a man whose rhetoric can be racist and whose dog whistles are so often to the out-and-out bigots now apparently attractive to a growing number of America’s black community?
I think three words help to provide the answer – economics, disappointment, and change.
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The pastor who believes Trump is the answer for America
In the northwestern suburbs of Detroit, Michigan, this week I met Lorenzo Sewell.
In July, I’d watched from among the crowd as the 43-year-old pastor addressed the Republican Party Convention in Milwaukee.
With church-gospel oratory, he’d told the crowd back then that Mr Trump was the answer for America.
Now, in his downtrodden community, he was giving me the tour which he said explains the shifting politics.
“This street tells the biggest story…” the pastor told me.
We walked down Grand River Avenue. And there wasn’t much grand about it, at least not along this part. North of gentrified downtown is uptown – forgotten.
“What you’ll see down Grand River is… I mean it’s so bad, it’s completely desolate. All black people. And then as soon as you get downtown, the racial dynamics change,” Mr Sewell said.
Pastor praised Trump for visiting ‘the hood’
The downtown area of Michigan’s largest city has seen massive regeneration over the past decade. It looks great but is unaffordable now for most who once lived here. And beyond downtown, many suburbs are crumbling and struggling.
“President Trump says Detroit needs help,” the pastor said. “This is it.”
Inside his church, Mr Sewell showed me the spot where he prayed with Mr Trump.
The former president paid a visit to the community back in June. In a video of the moment, which quickly went viral, the pastor praised Mr Trump for visiting “the hood”.
“President Trump, I am so humbled that you would be here,” he said back then in a crowded church. “President Obama never came to the hood so to speak… President Biden never came to the hood. So thank you.”
‘Life was better under President Trump’
Whether Mr Trump’s visit was opportunistic or sincere, it was unquestionably savvy and exposed the Democrats in a city they’ve run for decades. It sucked in the pastor. And the church was packed.
“He’s not a politician. I understand he may not be as polished as we want him to be, but just life was better under President Trump. Everybody knows it,” he said.
“Yeah, he has flaws, but to any black person out there who would say ‘Trump’s a racist, Trump’s a mean person’, I met him personally. I shook hands with him. I spent time with him.”
‘We need change’
“Trump opens doors for us. The Democrats haven’t,” he added, scathing of Mr Obama’s “brothers” comments.
“It’s almost like they want to seduce us with Obama. Do they think we don’t have political prowess? We may be poor and black, but that doesn’t mean we’re stupid,” he told me.
I suggested maybe he’s been hoodwinked by Mr Trump, who hardly oozes Christian values, whose rhetoric is so often laced with racism, and who has woefully underdelivered on policy pledges before.
“The reality is he is a businessman, and you build a relationship with him,” he replied. “I know in this community people are hurting. We have been under democratic rule for six decades. We need change. I know that under Trump, gas was cheaper. My bills were cheaper.”
‘Do they want to vote for the vice president or stay home?’
Further down Grand River Avenue, as uptown becomes downtown, the gentrification begins to shine through. In the shadows of the glitzy office buildings, I joined a gathering of Democratic Party faithful.
“Black Men For Harris” is the tag. The evening event, at a local sports bar, was billed as a show of support for Ms Harris.
“I think most black men in America are determining not, do they want to vote for Kamala or Trump? It’s do they want to vote for the vice president or stay home?” voter Jeff Johnson told me.
Among the small crowd, former state senator Marshall Bullock said: “It’s imperative that we win Michigan at all costs. And there’s really only one choice: Vice President Harris is the candidate of decency, integrity, and for the people.”
The problem is Ms Harris may be all of those things, but many people are voting on the economy, on lower taxes and with an eye on their back pocket. They may like the values of decency and integrity, but maybe they’re not going to pay for them.
“Life was cheaper, better under Trump.” That’s the echo I hear across swathes of America. A misguided nostalgia? Maybe. A concern for Ms Harris? For sure.