Tesla will “go ballistic” next year on the back of its autonomy efforts says Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who said the same thing last year about this year – and many years before.
Tesla held its Q4 and full year 2024 earnings today, missing expectations on revenue and earnings. The company had its first down sales year since 2011, despite a rising EV market.
The market initially responded poorly to the numbers, but recovered as Tesla guided a return to growth.
Part of that return to growth includes Musk’s prediction that Tesla’s autonomous offerings will drastically improve, leading to an “epic 2026 and a ridiculously good ’27 and ’28.” He said that Tesla is “really going to go ballistic next year, and really ballistic in ’27 and ’28.”
But these statements echo things that Musk has said before, even up until a few months ago.
Last year, in Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, Musk described no less than 6 ways that the company would change the world in 2025.
Those six ways were: Tesla Semi, a new “affordable EV,” the next-gen Roadster, unsupervised full self-driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus robot.
Those last three all fall under the umbrella of autonomous operation, which Musk has pivoted increasingly towards promising on short timelines (“next year”) and with ridiculous valuations (~$20-30 trillion market cap) in an attempt to pump the stock that the vast majority of his wealth is held in.
Those promises were supposed to come this year, in 2025, when they were promised last year, in 2024.
But today, during 2025, Musk seemed to move back that promise to next year, 2026.
It’s something that has happened many times before, as Musk has continually promised fully autonomous operation for several years now. Going all the way back to 2014, we’ve heard promises that Tesla’s cars would be able to drive themselves, even across country with no driver, as early as 2017. Many of these promises included the phrase “next year,” just as today’s did, despite Musk’s earliest timelines now being 8 years ago.
In today’s call, Musk spent a lot of time highlighting recent progress Tesla has made towards large-scale unsupervised FSD, by pointing out that Tesla’s vehicles are now able to operate themselves at low-speed on well-marked private property by driving themselves around a factory parking lot. It is, at least, an improvement from being unable to drive themselves through a one-way tunnel.
Musk also went on to say that fully autonomous robotaxis would be in operation within 5 months in some US cities, and in all US cities by the end of next year. Tesla will start off in Austin, two-and-a-half years after Cruise started operation there (and later ended it), and after Waymo has already started testing in the area.
He said that FSD would come later in Europe, mostly due to disparate regulatory regimes in the region, which he said need to be fixed (and yet, he is lobbying to make regulations even more disparate in Europe, through advocating for parties that want to break up the EU, like the neo-Nazi AfD party in Germany, and others).
On the back of these autonomy advancements, which are coming after other companies have already started doing the same thing, Musk said that Tesla has the potential to become “the most valuable company in the world” and “worth more than the next five companies combined.”
But, according to Musk, you shouldn’t be skeptical of his timeline. Despite the fact that he has continually been wrong, and said that it’s hard to predict the future (and yet he keeps doing so), he claimed today that “the only people who are skeptical are those who haven’t [tried FSD].” So, sound off in the comments if you’ve tried FSD and yet are skeptical of Tesla reaching full autonomy next year.
Charge your electric vehicle at home using rooftop solar panels. Find a reliable and competitively priced solar installer near you on EnergySage, for free. They have pre-vetted installers competing for your business, ensuring high-quality solutions and 20-30% savings. It’s free, with no sales calls until you choose an installer. Compare personalized solar quotes online and receive guidance from unbiased Energy Advisers. Get started here. – ad*