I think Cybertruck was a mistake for Tesla as it created this gap in growth for the company, but the automaker is making the most out of it as it turns the electric pickup truck into a marketing tool.
Tesla never had a dud. All its vehicle programs were successful in their own rights, some even wildly successful.
It’s too early to say if the Cybertruck is also going to be successful. It is enjoying a large reservation backlog, but it will be interesting to see how the demand holds once the vehicle’s production is ramped up.
But even once it is ramped up, Tesla is only talking about producing roughly 250,000 Cybertrucks per year.
It’s not nothing, but it also doesn’t significantly move the needle.
In fact, I would argue that Cybertruck has created what Tesla is describing as a break in its “waves of growth.” The first wave was the ramp-up of Model 3/Y and the next one is expected to be the ramp-up of Tesla’s upcoming next-generation vehicles starting in late 2025.
Tesla used to grow deliveries at a rate of roughly 50% per year, which is absolutely incredible for a major automaker.
Now, the growth has slowed greatly (20% as of last quarter), and Tesla has confirmed that it should be down throughout 2024. That’s obvious. Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y Y are almost maxed out, and the automaker only has Cybertruck to add to the lineup in 2024.
I would argue that Tesla would have been better off focusing its resources on its next-gen vehicles, the “$25,000 Tesla” and “robotaxi” throughout the last few years, to shorten the gap between its two growth phases.
If Tesla had brought the next-gen vehicles to market instead of the Cybertruck, it would have likely cut this break in growth by over a year.
Now, we likely can’t expect Tesla to return to 50% growth in deliveries until at least 2026.
But I have to admit, Tesla is making the best out of it. Again, I’m not saying the Cybertruck can’t be a successful vehicle program in itself. It’s too early to tell, but it could very well become one.
The production version of the Cybertruck is disappointing in many ways. It’s way more expensive than originally announced, it has a shorter range and requires an “extended range” battery pack that takes up a big part of the bed to get meaningful towing range.
On the other hand, it also introduces some cool technologies, like steer-by-wire and a 48-volt electrical system, and albeit polarizing, the novel design has attracted a lot of fans – and Tesla seems to be doubling down on that.
Hate it or love it, the Cybertruck is getting a ton of attention, and Tesla is utilizing it.
We reported that the unveiling of the Cybertruck alone already helped the sales of Tesla’s other vehicles by bringing people who were hearing about or getting interested in Tesla for the first time into the stores.
The Cybertruck rollout was also unique for Tesla. Before even starting deliveries, Tesla started to bring the vehicle in showrooms around the US. That’s unprecedented for Tesla. Again, it brought people into the showrooms, where Tesla tried to sell them its other electric vehicles.
Now, you can argue that it is still useful to have the Cybertruck in showrooms for reservation holders to come see it in person before moving forward with their orders.
However, Tesla even brought the Cybertruck to showrooms in Canada, where Tesla has yet to open orders.
Furthermore, the automaker brought Cybertruck on a tour in China and Japan, where we have no idea when or even if the Cybertruck will be available. The goal is again to bring people in stores and sell them Tesla’s other vehicles.
Therefore, it’s clear that Tesla is using the Cybertruck as a marketing tool, and at least so far, it definitely has a bigger impact that way than on its own with deliveries.
Electrek’s take
Again, I’m not saying that Cybertruck is a bad vehicle program. All I am saying is that it looks like it was a mistake to focus on it rather than Tesla’s next-generation vehicles.
It looks like for Tesla’s mission and shareholder value, it would have been better off spending the resources on bringing the next-gen vehicles to market a bit sooner. The difference over a few years would likely have been in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles.
Now, to be fair, even if Tesla’s growth is only about 15-20% this year, it’s still impressive for a major automaker entering the year with a production rate of about 2 million vehicles per year.